eco•logic Special Report

Two Futures

By Henry Lamb
May 9, 2002


Editor's note: Here are two views of what the world may be like toward the end of the 21st century. Part I pictures the future as it is transformed into a "sustainable world." The description is based on official documents, primarily from the United Nations and the federal government, and from other agencies and organizations working to bring about this transformation.

Part I - A Sustainable World

Land and resource use is strictly controlled by government. At least half of the land area, perhaps more, is wilderness. Only individuals who are given a permit by the government may enter the wilderness, and then, only on foot. Wilderness areas, called "Bioshpere Reserves," are connected by corridors of wilderness, so wildlife can move freely, without interference by humans. Surrounding the Biosphere Reserves, and the wilderness corridors, are "buffer zones," where public/private partnerships are allowed to farm, and engage in essential, sustainable manufacturing. The buffer zones are connected by "zones of cooperation," in which sustainable communities are located. (1)

All the communities are quite similar. As if an invisible wall surrounded the community, all development stops at the urban boundary. A "green belt" surrounds every community. Beyond the green belt lies the buffer zone where a few people are allowed to live, if they are employed by a public/private partnership performing an essential service.

There are no single-family homes in the community, except for those owned by the government for use by community officials. Large blocks of low-rise, high-density apartments are arranged in neighborhood units. Each neighborhood unit contains several apartment buildings that look the same. Each building is set back from the street to provide an off-street driveway around the entire block. This is for back-door deliveries to the shops that occupy the ground floor of every building. The buildings face inwards, toward a courtyard area with playground equipment and walkways. An area of the courtyard is reserved for a community garden for those residents who wish to plant vegetables.

Each of these neighborhood units is a project of a public/private partnership, funded by government and constructed and managed by an NGO partner. All structures comply with federal standards in design, using materials that carry the "Green-label" of approval. Rooftops are used for solar panels which provide supplemental energy to each building.

The resident-mix in each building within the neighborhood unit, must reflect both an ethnic and income balance, according to a formula established by government. Apartments are not available for purchase; rent is determined by the tenant's ability to pay, based on income; priority is given to the individuals who are employed in the shops within the neighborhood unit.

Each neighborhood unit provides a school, and day care facilities, as well as clinic-level medical services. The schools are designed to accept children at age two, and prepare students to take their appropriate place in the neighborhood, and in the larger society. The School-to-work program sorts children on the basis of aptitude and directs their education toward meeting projected community needs.

There is an auditorium/gymnasium facility that doubles as a recreational area and a place for neighborhood meetings and performances. There are no garages, parking spaces, or cars. There is no need for them. Shopping, and other services are all available within the neighborhood unit - within walking distance.

Shops are permitted on the basis of providing the goods and services needed by the residents, as determined by the neighborhood council.

Thoroughfares separate the neighborhood units. Traffic is limited to bicycles, pedestrians, emergency, and other official vehicles. Electric-powered light-rail trams occupy the center of the thoroughfares. People who work in the community's center, or in the buffer zones surrounding the community, commute on public transportation. Open space and parks are scattered among the neighborhood units. Bike and hike paths crisscross the community.

The NGO partner is responsible to the government for maintenance of the neighborhood unit, and compliance with regional, bioregional, and federal policies. Each neighborhood unit is governed by a neighborhood council, consisting of the board of directors of the NGO responsible for the neighborhood unit, and a minority of representatives elected by the residents. This council settles neighborhood disputes, rules on business permits for the shops, permits for use of the recreational/performance facilities, and approves all new renters and evictions.

Each neighborhood council elects one representative to the Community Council which is the governing board for the entire community. The Council hires the administrator, and approves the administrator's choice for department heads. The police department serves the Community Council and maintains a precinct station in each neighborhood unit. Police have "on-demand" authority for "compliance inspections." The Council sets the local tax rate, and chooses one of its members to serve on the Regional Council.

The Regional Council issues permits for activities within the zone of cooperation which connects the buffer zones. Light industry and farming that is deemed essential to the communities within the region may be permitted in this area. This Council is responsible for regional transportation and other issues of a transboundary nature. The Regional Council elects one of its members to serve on the Bioregional Council.

The Bioregional Council is responsible for the entire bioregion. Its primary function is to decide, and permit the activities that occur within the bioregion's buffer zones. Public/private partnership are awarded permits for food and energy production within the buffer zones. The Bioregional Council decides which crops are to be produced, how the crops will be processed and distributed to the communities within the Bioregion, and which crops, if any, will be produced for export to other Bioregions.

Movement within the urban boundaries is open for the residents of the community. Travel to the zones of cooperation, or to the buffer zones, requires a permit issued by the community council, and approved by the council of the zone to be visited. Movement from one Bioregion to another requires a special purpose permit. Vacations, for example, to a federal park in another Bioregion, would be permitted, if scheduled in advance. Travel for other purposes may, or may not, be approved.

Transportation, generally, accommodates the movement of goods as required to support communities. The need for personal travel is rare. Personal requirements can be met within the community, or the bioregion. The Inter-region Transport system was constructed from the turn-of-the-century Interstate highway system. Key routes between urban centers contain light-rail train systems as well as highways for vehicle transport. The transport system utilizes bridges over wilderness corridors, often, several miles long, a hundred feet or more above ground.

Air travel is limited to cross-continent, or inter-continental transport of goods, and council members traveling on official business. There is little need for personal air travel; business is conducted by telephone and Internet. Airports are located strategically as hubs, fed by a network of small, vertical- lift airplanes operating from bioregional centers. (2)

Governance

Neighborhood councils, consisting of the board of directors of the public/private partner, and a minority number of representatives elected by the residents of the neighborhood, constitute the basic element of governance, closest to the people. Its function is to apply government policy equitably within the neighborhood unit.

The council elects a representative to the community council, whose function is to implement government policy equitably throughout the entire community. The regional council consists of representatives elected by the various community councils within the region to see that government policy is implemented equitably throughout the region.

The bioregional council consists of representatives elected by each regional council within the bioregion. Each council is responsible for hiring the administrative personnel required to implement the policies for which it is responsible.

Each bioregional council elects an equal number of representatives to the national council, which is also the national delegation to the Global Forum. In many nations, the national council hires the national administrator, but in America, remnants of the U.S. Constitution still provide for the popular election of the chief executive officer - the President.

As the emergence of community, and regional councils replaced the city-council and county-commissioner form of government, the need for county boundaries diminished. As Bioregions became defined, the need for state boundaries diminished. City agencies easily adapted to community council control. County agencies, with more difficulty, were blended into regional agencies that answer to the regional council. Bioregional councils reorganized state agencies, eliminating many positions that had been duplicated in each state, in favor of an administrative team for the Bioregion to provide only those services required to support the Bioregion.

The Global Forum serves as the Global Council to the United Nations General Assembly, which consists of delegates appointed by the chief executive of each nation. Global governance is said to be the "final phase" of the evolution of self-governance, providing the perfect balance of bottom-up democracy with efficient, professional, transparent administration.

Global policies are enacted when adopted by both the Global Forum, and the General Assembly. Once adopted, agencies of the U.N. are responsible for equitable implementation around the world. The World Food Organization is responsible for tracking world food needs and world food production, and arranging the distribution equitably. Grain produced in the Great Prairie Bioregion feeds much of the world. Most other foods, however, must be produced within the Bioregion.

War is impossible. National borders have been dissolved, and Bioregional disputes are resolved by the national council or by the Global Forum. The only weapons available are manufactured by a factory operated directly by the United Nations for United Nations police agencies. National police agencies are responsible for the weapons issued to them, and individuals face severe penalties for loss, misuse, or abuse of their assigned weapon. Any weapon of any kind may be turned over to the police voluntarily for a reward - with no questions asked. Any individual found with an unauthorized weapon is subject to immediate incarceration - no questions asked.

The International Criminal Court, founded in 2002, has little activity except for the occasional revolutionaries who attempt to inflame rebellion. Non-compliance issues are handled at the community, regional, bioregional, or national levels with denial of activity requests, fines, relocation, or jail. (3)

It is said to be the perfect society, indeed, the final phase of societal evolution. The needs of people are equitably met while assuring that the earth's resources are not exploited beyond what is required to sustain human life. People have neither reason, nor resources to disturb the peaceful enjoyment of life. Without the need for investment in technology and tools for war, resources are available to expand prosperity around the world. By permitting and regulating all business activity, extravagance is virtually eliminated, as is the wasteful duplication of multiple versions of the same product. People are freed from the daily rigor of providing food and shelter, and have more leisure time to enjoy recreation and family activities.

The future of the world looks extremely bright. Children begin almost at birth, to learn that happiness is defined by compliance, and unhappiness is the certain result of non-compliance. Group harmony is the ultimate goal. Education is continual reinforcement of the value of group harmony and preparation for fulfilling each individual's niche within the group. Only students with demonstrated aptitude are permitted to study sciences and art, in sufficient numbers to provide the community's needs.

Students learn that any individual may rise to the height of influence and prestige by maintaining a spotless compliance record and participating in council activity within the neighborhood, and advancing through the council structure by always performing his responsibilities as required.

This is a reasonable description of a sustainable world as suggested in the literature now available. This sustainable future is the logical destination of the policies now in place, or currently under development. There is no identifiable, significant opposition to this future. There is, however, a better alternative.


    1. Based on Chapter 13 of the Global Biodiversity Assessment; the Seville Strategy, and the Statutory Framework for Biosphere Reserves; "The Wildlands Project," and the EPA's and Department of Interior internal working documents on Ecosystem Management Policy.

    2. Sustainable communities are described from the 1976 Report of Habitat I; Agenda 21; Reports to and from the United Nations Development Program, particularly, COMMUNITY SUSTAINABILITY; AGENDAS FOR CHOICE-MAKING & ACTION, submitted by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development to the U.N. Conference on Human Settlements in Istanbul, 1996.

    3. Global governance is described from Our Global Neighborhood, the report of the Commission on Global Governance; the "Millennium Declaration," and reports of the United Nations Development Program.


Part II - A Free World

Editor's note: Here is a description of what the world may be like toward the end of the 21st century if the principles of freedom are advanced.

Land, and the resources it contains, are the property of individual owners. Governments - local, state, and federal - own only the land and facilities that fall within the limitations of Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution. Consequently, the federal Department of Interior and the Department of Agriculture have been dissolved.

States that inherited the vast federal land holdings have almost completely divested the "public" estate, except for Alaska, where some of the land remains unsold, despite bargain-basement prices.

The Supreme Court decision that required government to divest the public land estate, also triggered an avalanche of governmental restructuring. The EPA was striped of all enforcement power, and became a research, educational, and advisory agency, providing information for state governments. The jurisdiction of the Corps of Engineers was limited to the "navigable waters of the United States," defined to be ports, and coastal and inter-coastal waterways.

The decision clearly recognized and stated explicitly that "land use regulation is not a legitimate function of the federal government," and that state and local governments must exercise these powers in order to insure that the regulators remain accountable to the regulated community.

Environmental organizations that predicted disastrous consequences for national treasures such as Yellowstone Park and the Grand Canyon, have been proven wrong. While some facilities still remain under the operation of state governments, most have been acquired by private enterprises, infusing state governments with needed revenues, and relieving those governments of maintenance responsibilities. Natural sites now compete with other attractions for tourist dollars. Yellowstone has not seen a catastrophic fire since the great fires at the end of the last century.

Within a year of the Supreme Court's landmark decision on public land, UNESCO had de-listed seven of the 20 World Heritage sites, and all 47 U.S. Biosphere Reserves, in a note to the State Department that said these sites could no longer be assured of protection at the level required for U.N. Designation. Congress immediately passed a resolution calling on the President to tell UNESCO to remove all U.S. properties from all their lists.

Environmental organizations which once wielded enormous influence are almost non-existent. The legislative ban on third-party law suits, and the severe restrictions on federal grants to not-for-profits, dealt a severe blow to many organizations. Conservancy organizations vanished when they were required to pay property taxes on their land holdings, at the same rate as other land owners.

The transfer of so-called public land into private ownership started the longest period of economic expansion in history. The availability of land reduced the cost of new construction. A sharp reduction in lawsuits over timber sales further reduced construction costs. Demand for new homes, combined with the absence of federal prohibitions, demolished the turn-of-the-century idea of urban limits. What once was derided as "urban sprawl" became a proud badge of economic growth.

Trouble with the U.N. really began in 1994 with the creation of the World Trade Organization. A series of decisions against the U.S. was tolerated during the first several years, but the decision on steel in 2002, that resulted in a $4 billion tariff imposed by the European Union, started real friction between the U.S. and the U.N. The U.S. withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol, and from the International Criminal Court . began a series of retaliatory decisions by the U.N.

The U.S. decision to prosecute the war on terrorism - without asking the U.N. for approval of its actions - infuriated the Human Rights Commission, and the U.N. Secretariat. When the High Commissioner issued a call for the indictment of Ariel Sharon, and the U.S. Secretary of Defense, followed by an arrest warrant issued by the ICC, Congress stopped all funds to all U.N. agencies and organizations. A resolution was unanimously adopted calling on the President to immediately begin the process of withdrawing membership from all U.N. organizations.

Headlines in the international press declared an end to U.S. domination of the world. Sarcastic eulogies of the "rise and fall of the U.S. empire."appeared. For a short time, the future was not certain. It took nearly ten years to completely withdraw. The U.S. held the majority of the voting shares of the International Monetary Fund, and U.S. shareholders controlled the majority of shares in the Bank of International Settlements. The U.S. made it clear that other shareholders were welcome to stay and continue participation, but that the institutions would function completely free from any influence by any United Nations organizations.

The European Union seized the opportunity to become the world central bank, and enticed several nations to join them as the world's banker. The U.S. said fine, but each nation that withdrew from the IMF would forfeit their shares to the extent of outstanding debt. The dollar and the euro battled for value supremacy for a short while, before settling down to about their pre-separation ratio.

Many United Nations organizations were consolidated within the first two years after the separation. Despite efforts by the European Union to increase the contributions from remaining member nations, the United Nations continued to decline in both size and relevance.

The United States launched an aggressive Trading Partners campaign around the theme "Let's build our world together." The Department of Commerce ignored the World Trade Organization altogether, and began developing "No-tariff" agreements with nations and groups of nations. The idea was to identify as many products as possible that could be traded with no tariffs. Other products - which one or the other country thought was unfairly subsidized, were put on a separate list and tariffs negotiated. It was a rigorous process, and there were many complaints that the process is exactly what the World Trade Organization was designed to eliminate.

The Department of Commerce, though, saw a different problem, and brought the issue to Congress. CNN, and FOX News joined CSPAN when the Secretary of Commerce appeared before the Senate Commerce Committee. "If you expect the U.S. to be competitive in a world of free trade, you're going to have to do one of two things: either force other countries to meet our production standards, or rethink the value of our standards in the light of lost business." Never before had a Secretary of Commerce put it so bluntly.

With nostrils flaring, a New England Senator asked: "Is it not true," Mr. Secretary, "that we would not be in this dilemma, had we stayed in the U.N., and allowed them to regulate industries engaged in international commerce?"

"No, Senator, it is not true. What is true, had we stayed in the U.N. and allowed them to regulate international trade, is that we would be producing what the U.N. said to produce, and selling it to whomever the U.N. said to sell it, and eventually, at whatever price the U.N. said was fair. Surely you haven't forgotten that the expressed goal of the U.N. was to redistribute to earth's resources on the basis of per-capita equity, without regard for production costs or capitol investment."

The Secretary reminded the Committee that the U.S. cannot force its trading partners to pay a minimum wage equal to U.S. wages. Nor can the U.S. force other nations to require their businesses to provide for the disabled, put emissions scrubbers in their smoke-stacks, or any of the other requirements imposed on businesses by U.S. government.

The Secretary ended his explosive testimony by asking the Committee to instruct the Congressional Research Service to perform an extensive cost analysis of every regulation imposed on industries engaged in international trade "so they will know the precise cost in real dollars, for each of the standards they require."

These studies were extremely controversial, and went on for years. Many regulations were ended, along with their attendant enforcement bureaucracies. At the same time, the Commerce Department added incentives to the trading program, offering reduced-rate loans and technical assistance to countries that agreed to upgrade their production standards. The trade deficit was completely erased by 2014, and the surplus has grown at about the same rate as the overall economy ever since.

In retrospect, of all of the tumultuous events of the first decade of the 21st century, none had greater impact on the economy than the five-year tax reform. Both disaster and prosperity were predicted when Congress finally shifted to the flat tax. Surprisingly, most of the debate centered on whether the flat tax should be a sales tax, or an income tax. The winning argument for an income tax prevailed, because Congressmen realized that tax rates could be too-easily adjusted on selected products and industries, in order to effect social engineering, by the political party in power.

The flat income tax applied to everyone, except the people at-or-below the current poverty line. No deductions, no exceptions. Congress finally realized that it made no sense at all for the federal government to take money from taxpayers, send it to Washington, only to be returned to the states, less a significant administrative fee, and with strings attached to force social engineering. The Department of Education was completely eliminated. The Department of Transportation's horns were sheared as well, with authority limited to the interstate system, air, and rail travel.

The tax reform may well be the bloodiest political battle of the century. Attorneys, accountants, financial planners, federal employee unions, and non-government organizations coalesced to wage a relentless public relations and lobbying campaign against the reform. In the end, the reform was adopted when the Vice President cast the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.

The five-year phase-in strategy prevented the dislocations predicted by the opponents. Not surprisingly, state governments adopted similar flat-tax plans which simplified payment procedures for both employers and employees. Federal revenues increased immediately, despite predictions to the contrary. Not-for-profit organizations, though, did show a rather dramatic decline. Organizations that delivered humanitarian services, saw an increase in revenues. Think- tanks and advocacy groups, however, did not fare very well.

Advocates of the flat tax defended their stance, claiming that the elimination of federal grants, and tax subsidies, would force the NGOs to compete for contributions based on the real value of their services to society.

Historians will argue for another century about what caused the transformation. At this point, we can only speculate as to the influence the events in the United States had on the rest of the world. We can observe, and let the historians argue about the whys.

The transformation of Afghanistan after the Taliban was dislodged made the rest of the world sit up and take notice. After a half-century of wars and oppression, and unimaginable poverty, Afghanistan emerged as a major regional economic power in less than a generation. The post-Taliban government was plagued, for a few years, with aspiring war-lords, but with schools accepting all students, and markets welcomed in every community, the war-lords had difficulty recruiting. Massive assistance from the U.S., Britain, Japan, and even Russia, had Kabul, and some other cities rebuilt, within less than a decade.

Electricity-generating plants, highway construction, and the construction of water and sewer facilities provided employment for thousands of people, who were eager to work. With incomes they had never even imagined, they were eager to experience air conditioning, a real home, and an automobile. Supermarkets and theaters flourished. Time Magazine wrote a feature about Afghanistan entitled "A century of progress in a generation."

Pakistan, too, underwent a similar transformation, though not as quickly as Afghanistan. Private media outlets in both countries reached Iran and Iraq, which many attribute to the downfall of their dictatorial governments. The fundamentalist Islamic revival apparent early in the century faded away, primarily from lack of interest. Given the opportunity to own their own land, and start up their own businesses, people were too busy pursuing their own happiness to be sidetracked by war-lords or dogma.

Africa and South America are in neck- and- neck competition for the most exciting investment opportunities. Electrification and transportation projects on both continents, pioneered by U.S. firms, unleashed a flood of development activity. China is Taiwan's largest trading partner.

Europe is showing signs of recovery from the remnants of the European Union. The euro is about all that remains, which most European countries continued to use as the national currency.


These events have not yet happened, but they could, and they may well happen. The future of a managed society must result in the same pattern of failure that history has repeatedly recorded. The future of a free society can only be imagined, based on the success of the only nation where freedom has been tried. No one can fully comprehend the power of free people to solve problems, create solutions, and construct new realities. The world is poised at the dawn of a new millennium. The choices society makes within the first decade of this new century will either condemn future generations to the failures of the past, or empower posterity to build the future of their dreams.

These are our choices; they begin at the next election.




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